CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T09:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T09:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16938/-1
CME Note: Source is eruption from AR 2824 at 06:15Z, with dimming towards the S of the AR. Material moving after 06:45Z to the W from AR. In STA Cor2 it is seen as two CMEs, NW one at 08:23 and SW one at 09:38 (the later might be associated with a C-class flare at 06:45Z). The CMEs are seen as one in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3. CME ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-25T11:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V3. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 500.0 km/s Upgraded EAMv3 output: u_r = 317.100 Acceleration: 1.82954 Duration in seconds: 267044.09 Duration in days: 3.0907881 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.83 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 805.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/05/2021 Time: 11:22 UTLead Time: 52.37 hour(s)
Difference: 24.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-05-24T07:15Z
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